ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend area could see a hurricane make landfall sometime on Thursday, potentially as a Category 3 or stronger.

By Monday evening, the National Hurricane Center said the system hovering west of Jamaica had yet to develop into a tropical depression or storm with a clearly defined center. Yet with fewer than three days to go before conditions could start to deteriorate in Florida, the hurricane center released a forecast track for what it called potential tropical cyclone 9.

The latest forecast track would take it between Mexico and Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico and into Florida’s Gulf Coast in three days, showering Florida’s entire west coast with storm surge, high winds and up to six inches of rain throughout the week.

With much of the west coast and Panhandle likely to feel impacts from what is shaping up as a large and wet system, Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 41 counties in Florida on Monday afternoon.

“Now is the time to make an emergency plan, know your evacuation zone, and be as prepared as possible for the storm,” he said in a statement on Twitter.

A tropical storm watch was issued for the lower Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas, meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible there within 48 hours. Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba remain under hurricane watches or tropical storm warnings.

West coast on watch

Because the system has not formed yet and lacks a defined center, forecasters warned that the forecast was more uncertain than usual. They expect Helene to develop in the next day or two and then rapidly strengthen as it heads toward Florida — from a tropical depression to a major, Category 3 hurricane in about three days.

In a briefing Monday morning, Jamie Rhone, deputy director of the hurricane center, urged Floridians to be prepared for a “potentially major hurricane” later this week.

“This is a classic case of don’t focus on the center of the cone, and don’t focus on the models. Why? Because this system is very large and is likely going to spread impacts well to the east,” he said.

“That means practically everybody along the Florida west coast all the way up to the Big Bend and Florida Panhandle has to be on guard.”

South Florida could see rain, potentially heavy, beginning as soon as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach the Florida peninsula as soon as Wednesday morning in the Keys.

Watches and warnings for swaths of the Florida coast could be issued as soon as Tuesday, Rhone said.

By Monday evening, the hurricane center’s forecast track appears to be focused on landfall in the Big Bend area, the coast nearest Tallahassee.

Rapid intensification likely

While Helene had still not officially formed a tropical depression as of the Monday 5 p.m. update, meteorologists said that was a good thing. Bill Karins, a meteorologist for NBC news, shared several graphs showing the high potential for Helene to rapidly intensify in the Gulf.

“The longer it takes to organize the better,” he wrote on Twitter.

Helene’s path forward is lined with some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin, which could fuel its growth into a strong hurricane. The latest forecast called for Helen to top out with 115 mph sustained winds right before landfall, a Category 3.

The waters in the northeast Gulf are about 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average, posted Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, on Twitter.

“It’s concerning from a potential intensity and moisture availability perspective!” he wrote.

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