Regardless, Good

Erick Erickson on Apr 25, 2025

President Donald Trump supporters think the President always strategizes ahead of others -- like multidimensional chess. Trump critics think the man who beat Democrats twice is too stupid to think, much less strategize. Those closest to Mr. Trump say he is doing what he does best -- going with his gut, letting others fight it out in front of him, then deciding and often improvising. That sounds closest to the truth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than one thousand points only eleven times. Four of those times have come after what Mr. Trump called "Liberation Day." The markets have had their worst monthly performance since the Great Depression. The only thing that has fundamentally changed in the economy is Trump's tariffs.

Last week, after much market turmoil, Mr. Trump announced that his reciprocal tariffs, derived from an absurd formula that literally no one inside the Trump administration wants to take credit for conjuring, would be paused. Only the 25% auto tariff and the 10% baseline tariff for all nations would continue. Additionally, Trump imposed a tariff on China well over 100%.

The end of the reciprocal tariffs caused a market jump. Then Mr. Trump announced exemptions from tariffs for tech companies like Apple, which also helped the markets. The markets then cratered as Trump administration officials publicly claimed Mr. Trump was exploring ways to fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. On Tuesday, Trump and his team started doing serious damage control. It came after private meetings with executives from Target, Walmart and Home Depot.

First, Trump assured everyone that while he wanted Mr. Powell to lower rates, he would not fire Mr. Powell. Other White House officials said Trump intended to let Mr. Powell serve out his full term. Part of the White House team's calculus was that even if Mr. Powell were fired, the other members of the Federal Open Market Committee would still do as they had been doing, and Mr. Trump could not fire them.

Second, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a closed-door meeting designed to be leaked that Mr. Trump would lower rates on China, and the United States would go first. Trump then weighed in that the United States would not bully China with complaints about COVID-19, but would "be nice."

Third, on Wednesday, Mr. Trump's team leaked that he would consider exempting automakers from some tariffs previously imposed. The Financial Times reported that auto parts imported from China would be exempt -- a first step towards normalizing trade relations with China. China, it should be noted, has refused to start negotiations.

The Trump administration claimed the trade war they started would realign the economy away from Wall Street towards Main Street. But Apple and Nvidia got exceptions. Walmart, Target, and Home Depot got meetings. The local mom-and-pop on Main Street got a 145% increase in the cost of their goods from China, with no exceptions and no White House meeting. It was up to the Fortune 500 to point out how Main Street is getting hurt more than Wall Street from the tariffs.

Small businesses have less wiggle room in the economy. Margins are tighter. Much of what small businesses import comes from China and there are no alternative markets to buy from. Small businesses may not want to buy from China, but they have little choice. Should they find other markets, they still have tariffs on those goods, even if not as high, unless they buy American, which tends to be more expensive than the imports, often even with the 10% tariff imposed.

Trump's supporters have argued that this is all part of a larger plan, and we should give it time to work. But the laws of supply and demand cannot be so easily manipulated by politicians, and a continued trade war would harm more than it helps. Trump's supporters also have argued that the walk-backs, revisions, etc. were all part of the plan. To many others, it looks like he started a trade war and then blinked first. Regardless, charting a course away from tariffs and economic turmoil is good.

========

To find out more about Erick Erickson and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

----