ORLANDO, Fla. — Democrats believe they can flip U.S. Rep. Cory Mills’ Central Florida district blue, adding him to a list of Republican representatives they view as vulnerable in the 2026 midterm elections.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced its plans this week for taking back control of the House, placing Mills and two other Florida GOP members of Congress on its target list of 35 Republican-held seats.

Though popular in past elections, Mills has been embroiled in controversy lately with Washington, D.C., police probing an assault allegation, and the House Ethics Committee examining his business dealings and whether he personally benefited from federal weapons contracts while in Congress.

Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Elvira Salazar are the other Florida members of Congress on the DCCC’s list. But the DCCC still must find challengers who can pose a real threat.

“The DCCC is already working to recruit authentic and battle-ready candidates in Florida who reflect these districts and will work to better Floridians’ lives,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement.

Republicans narrowly control the U.S. House, holding 220 seats, while Democrats control 213 seats and are expected to fill two vacancies in solidly blue districts.

Florida Republicans voiced confidence they will continue to prevail in a state that is now reliably in the GOP’s column.

“It’s good to see that the Democrats still look at Florida as their fool’s gold,” said Evan Power, chairman of the Florida GOP. “The Democrats are welcome to come spend more money.”

But Democrats think voter anger will help them next year. They are highlighting the layoff of federal workers by billionaire Elon Musk’s government efficiency task force, a stock market selloff fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and proposed cuts to Medicaid, the joint federal-state health program for the poor and people with disabilities.

Mills, a U.S. army veteran, has dominated in Republican-leaning District 7, which includes Seminole County and parts of Volusia County. He was first elected in 2022, beating Democrat Karen Green by 17 percentage points. He easily won re-election last year against Democrat Jennifer Adams with a 13-percentage point advantage.

A close Trump ally, Mills has said he’s considering running for U.S. Senate in the 2026 GOP primary against incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody, potentially leaving his congressional seat open.

Central Florida Democrats have been calling for Mills to hold a town hall meeting in his district, but their calls have gone unanswered. Last month, more than 150 people filled a Winter Springs church to taunt an absent Mills for not accepting their repeated invitations.

Mills’ office did not respond Tuesday to a request for comment from the Orlando Sentinel.

Last week’s special congressional elections in Florida, including in the neighboring District 6, give Democrats optimism, said Aubrey Jewett, a professor of political science at the University of Central Florida. The elections were won by Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine in heavily GOP-leaning seats, but also saw Democratic gains of between 15 to 20 percentage points from November.

“They closed the gap considerably,” Jewett said of Democrats, adding that the party out of power in the White House tends to do better in midterm elections. “If these tariffs are still high, unemployment goes up, we actually have an economic slowdown and inflation stays high, then presumably Trump’s popularity may be not too great and Dems might actually have a much better opportunity.”

In addition, Seminole County has become less reliably red. And the northern section of Volusia County in District 6 also went Republican in the April 1 special election by just 3 points, potentially putting the southern half in District 7 in play as well.

Mills is also dealing with political fallout from two investigations.

In February, the Metropolitan Police Department opened a probe following a report of an alleged assault involving Mills at a Washington, D.C., residence.

Mills vehemently denied any physical altercation occurred. Sarah Raviani, 27, listed as the alleged victim in a police report, denied in a statement to the Orlando Sentinel and other media outlets that an assault occurred.

The incident remains under investigation, police spokeswoman Makhetha Watson said Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the House Ethics Committee is scrutinizing Mills’ business dealings and financial disclosure statements.

The Office of Congressional Ethics found “substantial reason to believe that Rep. Mills may have entered into, held, or enjoyed contracts with federal agencies while serving in Congress,” potentially in violation of House rules and federal law.

The inquiry focused on various business entities tied to Mills and his wife that sell less-than-lethal munitions to the federal government, according to a report from the nonpartisan office charged with reviewing ethics complaints against House members.

The OCE found that two business entities, Pacem Defense and ALS, have secured close to $1 million in federal contracts since January 2023 for munitions and weapons, distributed to prisons across the country. Another entity, Pacem Solutions, contracted with the federal government for $11,632 in May 2024, according to the report.

The report also found “substantial reason to believe” that Mills may have omitted or misrepresented required information in his financial disclosure statements, and his campaign may have accepted excessive contributions.

In a response letter, Mills’ attorney noted that the Federal Election Commission dismissed campaign finance allegations against the congressman.

The Ethics Committee announced last month that it will review the allegations and make its own determination of whether Mills violated House rules, which could potentially result in disciplinary action.

Democrats could use the ethics allegations to damage Mills politically, Jewett said.

“We know that incumbents usually win about 90% of the time, but of the 10% that lose, certainly one of the bigger reasons is that they have gotten involved in some sort of ethical problems,” he said

In the end, winning District 7 may still be a reach for Democrats but they are “at least hopeful,” Jewett said. “And considering all the times they’ve lost in the last three decades in Florida, hope is important for them.”

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