Flyers clinch fourth-best odds in NHL draft lottery with loss to Sabres

Gustav Elvin, The Philadelphia Inquirer on Apr 17, 2025

Published in Hockey

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It’s been a trying few years for Flyers fans, but they got what they wanted on Thursday night, as the team lost its season finale, 5-4, in Buffalo, N.Y., to the Sabres, and with it, clinched the fourth-best odds in the upcoming NHL draft lottery. Entering the night, the Flyers knew a regulation loss would be enough to see them leapfrog the Boston Bruins into fourth via tiebreaker.

By finishing tied for the fourth-fewest points (76), the Flyers now have a 9.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick via the ping-pong balls, a 19% chance of landing No. 1 or No. 2, and an almost 80% chance of landing a top-five draft selection, according to Tankathon. The Flyers edged out Boston and Seattle, who both finished with the same number of points, courtesy of the fewest regulation wins tiebreaker. San Jose has the best odds at landing No. 1 (25.5%), followed by Chicago (13.5%), and then Nashville (11.5%).

Entering the draft lottery, which reportedly will take place on either May 5 or 6, the Flyers now have the potential to pick first, second, third, fourth, fifth or sixth in June’s draft. With just a 0.3% chance of picking third, the Flyers are most likely to pick fourth (15.4%), fifth (44.6%) or sixth (20.8%).

Here’s how the weighted lottery works: the 16 teams that don’t make the playoffs receive ping-pong balls with number combinations; the worse the team’s record, the more combinations. There are two separate drawings, one for the first pick and another for the second.

Teams cannot rise more than 10 spots — only the bottom 11 teams are eligible to pick first — or fall further than two places. If a team that is ineligible for the top pick draws it, the pick goes to the worst team (San Jose), and the team that picked it up moves up the maximum 10 spots.

Since 2022, teams are only allowed to improve their lottery standing twice in five years. This does not impact the Flyers this year, as they dropped one position in 2022 (No. 4 to No. 5), and stood pat in both 2023 (No. 7) and 2024 (No. 12).

If the Flyers stand pat this year with the fourth pick, they would be picking in the top four for just the seventh time in franchise history. The Flyers have picked first overall only once (they traded for the top pick to draft Mel Bridgman in 1975) and second twice (James van Riemsdyk in 2007, Nolan Patrick in 2017). Since embarking on their rebuild following the 2022 season, the Flyers have selected Cutter Gauthier (No. 5), Matvei Michkov (No. 7) and Jett Luchanko (No. 12) with their top picks in the last three drafts.

This year, the Flyers’ biggest need entering the draft is landing a potential No. 1 center for the future. While the 2025 class isn’t considered the strongest class, there are several centers projected to go in the top 10, headlined by Michael Misa (Saginaw Spirit), James Hagens (Boston College), Anton Frondell (Djurgårdens) and Caleb Desnoyers (Moncton).

The Flyers will be busy even after making their first selection on June 27, as the team has two additional first-round picks thanks to trades with the Colorado Avalanche for Sean Walker and the Edmonton Oilers for pick 32 last year. The pick the Flyers traded to Edmonton was initially acquired along with Owen Tippett from Florida in the 2022 Claude Giroux deal. Danny Brière and Co. have 11 picks overall, including four second-rounders, and are due to make seven of the first 64 selections.

The 2025 draft, which will be decentralized for the first time, will be held at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles from June 27-28. While the top prospects will attend the draft, the team staffs will not be present and instead will participate virtually from their respective cities.

The Flyers have not improved on their lottery position since 2017 — when they jumped up from 13th to No. 2 for Patrick — and will be hoping for a good bounce of the ping-pong balls. The way things have gone the last few years, they seem due for a break.